Monday, November 7, 2016

Tomorrow We Make History.... I mean Herstory

This is it! My final prediction of the 2016 (or should I say 2015-2016) election season.   I have to say.... my final prediction is a bit boring.  I thought about Ohio a lot,  and I thought about moving Arizona blue,  just to spice things up.  But ultimately I had to go with what I truly believe will happen.  Yes,  I think she can win Arizona, in fact,  if reports of early voting in that state are accurate, I think Hillary has a damn fine chance of winning the state tomorrow night.  Maybe even... 30% or 40% chance.  That is nothing to sneeze at.  That's basically "you have a good night,  you get the vote out,  you have a few Republican women who tell the pollster one thing but do another in the booth, and you have yourself an upset".   So if my map below is wrong,  I'd say start there and Ohio.  Here's another prediction I'll throw out,  since I think this map is rather boring and probably expected:  I think Florida will be closer than North Carolina.   I thought of this one about a week ago,  and granted,  recent news has made me reconsider because Florida apparently has had a nice strong Lation wave in early voting,  and NC has not seen that.   So I'd be happy to be wrong about this one, especially if Hillary still wins both anyways (though note she needs neither,  if the rest of my map is correct).   But based on polling I'm going to stick with that statement:  I think the final total in Florida will be closer than North Carolina.   I'm 52% sure of that prediction, lol. 

Ok I know,  show me the map.  Ok,  here you go!  Take this,  Nate Silver !!   





As you can see,  of the so called "battlegrounds",  I see Hillary winning most of them:  NV, CO, FL, NC,  NH and VA (though VA really isn't one anymore,  I don't think).   Trump manages to take Iowa and Ohio.  A pretty solid win for Team Hillary,  but not a blowout as I would like.  Speaking of which... I'm going to double up on maps tonight.  If the polling is off a bit,  and there really is a silent movement of women and Republicans who will go into the booth and check the box for Ms. Clinton, and Hillary has a great night overall,  winning the popular vote by say... 6-8%...  then we might see this tomorrow night: 






And I'll say this too... I wonder... I just wonder if we've all underestimated the DNC ground game,  and at the same time underestimated the impact of the lack of a ground game with Trump the big orange rump.  I just wonder.... if we're in for a real shocker tomorrow night.  Like Texas.  I honestly think it's possible.   Wouldn't that just grab you in the pussy?  

Ok one last thing.  Let's look back at my original prediction from 500 days ago.  The only differences are Hillary takes AZ and Iowa but loses NC.  Those are the only 3 states I ultimately changed my prediction on 500 days apart,  lol.   Makes you wonder why we needed a year and a half to argue and debate this thing.  

Tomorrow night,  my friends,  we celebrate!!!!   Now go vote!!

Yours Truly,

The Heartless Bastard

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

50 Days out, the race is definitely closer



A pretty big change in the past 50 days. For awhile,  Clinton was cruising on the upbeat and inclusive message of the Democratic National Convention vs. the fear, hatred, and insanity of the Republican Convention. As the weeks went by, the lead grew and then remained steady for a week or two. Now, for whatever reason,  the racist asshole has gained in many states. But, there haven't been any debates yet, and Hillary is expected to open a can of whupass. Of course, that will work against her in the same way going to see a movie with huge anticipation means you expect to be blown away by that movie. Most people will go into the debates expecting Trump to be a moron and lie about his penis size. Anything above that and there are likely millions who will mindlessly clap and talk about how surprisingly good he was. Meanwhile,  Hillary can literally reveal the cure for cancer,  and there will still be some who find her performance to be disappointing. Even so,  she will kick his ass,  and it will help her in the polls. Here now, my prediction, just about 50 days out: 

(in case you are curious,  the 3 states I'm least convinced about are (in order): Nevada,  North Carolina,  and Florida.  That is,  I'm least convinced about Nevada of all the blue states in the map below. )




Thursday, August 11, 2016

100 Days Out: Hillary in a Landslide (sound familiar?)

I'm going to make this short and sweet (and yes,  I'm a few days late) - the conventions are over,  and so is Trump's campaign.   Hillary will win in a landslide and the only question right now is how big of a landslide.   325?   350?  400?   Oh and for posterity,  this past week here are some of the lowlights:


  • Obama is the founder of ISIS
  • A crazy man climbed the outside of Trump Tower (well why shouldn't he?  a crazy man climbs the inside every day)
  • Trump suggested the NRA folks could stop Hillary,  then he later lied and pretended he meant something else.   (but,  I thought he always says what he means and means what he says?)
  • Trump is being sued for being a pedophile sexual pervert.  
  • A Washington Post story outlined a 2007 deposition in which Trump was repeatedly forced to admit he'd publicly lied about... well, just about everything.  


Here now,  my prediction,  (approx.) 100 days out.  Oh wait,  one more thing.  I have,  for the first time,  not just predicted the state outcomes,  but the margin of victory as well.  All polls point to Virginia now being a BLUE state (woohoo!) and my dark shading reflects that.  Also,  I view Florida as slightly more likely to go for Hillary than Ohio,  which is slightly more likely than NC.  Ok , here now for real this time,  is my prediction:


Sunday, April 24, 2016

200 Days Out : Hillary in a blowout

I'm going to make this short and sweet.  At this point,  Hillary will be the Democratic nominee,  and Trump almost certainly will be the GOP nominee.   Based on polling data over the past few months, it is clear that Trump would not only lose by at least 10% in the popular vote,  but would likely be a disaster for the GOP all the way down the ticket.  Let's hope that is true;  the karma boomerang for the hateful and disgusting politics of the Republican party is many years overdue.

With Trump as the nominee,  even if the GOP doesn't mount an alternative choice (which would probably make things even better for Hillary),  I see the first female President winning in November in a blowout,  over 400 electoral votes.  Honestly,  it might get even better,  but we'll have to see how the polls shake out once nominees are set,  and the VP candidates are chosen.

My latest prediction:


Thursday, January 21, 2016

300 (or so) Days Out

I'm about a week behind here,  but who's counting?   Here is my updated map,  I think my main change is Florida to the Democratic nominee.  Really, there is very little significant polling this far out.  I should have taken into consideration that there would be plenty of polling regarding the primaries but very little for the general election.  So really,   this isn't based on much. The truth is, at this point the more interesting question is: who will the nominees be?   One reason I moved Florida back to the Democratic camp is that the Republican party is just a godawful mess right now.   Trump and Cruz are the leading candidates and ... well let's be honest,  they're both big old steaming piles of dog shit.  Trump is a racist and a narcissist .  Cruz is a douche who is hated by just about everyone who knows him.   I don't see either doing well in the general election and further,  given that Trump almost certainly IS a narcissist,  I believe if Cruz is the nominee,  Trump will run as an independent.  If that happens,  Hillary or Bernie is likely to win all the toss ups, even states like North Carolina and maybe Arizona.

Hillary/Bernie is the other interesting question at this point.  I will say in the past week I've experienced the first belief that Bernie really could become the nominee. I still love both candidates and I want the one most likely to win in the general election to become the nominee,  and I still,  right now,  think that is Hillary.   The truth is Bernie is a liberal,  Hillary is a moderate but a very sane one. Bernie is the better candidate but unless the Democrats take both the House and Senate (unlikely,  given Gerrymandering)  will it really matter which of them is President? I don't think so. That's just my personal belief.   I'm sure Bernie will talk about liberal issues that liberals care about, more often than Hillary,  and when he does, his positions will be liberal, and Hillary's will be moderate (or,  as Fox will call them "insanely communist socialist freedom hating and satanic").

Enough blathering.. here's my updated map...




Wednesday, January 6, 2016

The Manipulation of the Mindless Masses for Money, Money and more Money

To paraphrase Andy Rooney,  Didja ever notice all you have to do is mention guns,  or background checks,  or waiting periods - and you are immediately met with shouts of tyranny and trampling of our freedoms?   Didja ever notice that this type of reaction somehow only ever happens with the 2nd Amendment?

I believe many staunch gun rights advocates have a knee-jerk (or NRA-inspired knee-jerk) reaction to ANY attempt to discuss gun control, background checks, waiting periods or anything similar. It's like there has been a short circuit integrated into their brains that ANYTIME ANYONE says ANYTHING about guns, they spit out some rote response about the 2nd amendment.

But what about when other Amendments are changed or modernized?   Take the 1st Amendment for example,  free speech specifically.   Why isn't there a large group of angry people complaining that by not constitutionally protecting the false shouting of "fire" in a theater, or that by not constitutionally protecting libel and slander, the big scary Government is taking away our freedoms, and crapping on the Constitution.  Hmmm?

Why wasn't the decision that libel is NOT protected under the 1st amendment met with staunch resistance, outcries of tyranny and demands for the reinstatement of our total unfettered freedom to say whatever shit we want to!? Why wasn't the decision that falsely yelling "fire" in a crowded area, causing panic, injury, and possibly death - why wasn't the decision that this is not constitutionally protected under the 1st amendment - why wasn't that met with an endless supply of angry mobs beseeching the rest of the country to wake up and smell this governmental power grab of our personal rights and freedoms!? Why didn't that happen?

Well... it didn't happen because when those things came to pass, we actually had a situation where both major political parties cared about improving our country and both parties saw the benefit and logic behind the decision and neither party pandered to hysteria, or (more accurately) were paid to pander to hysteria. But the REAL reason it never happened is because it's bullshit and anyone who can think rationally knows it.

Anyone who can think rationally knows that it is not a threat to your freedom of speech to say you cannot materially and substantially lie about someone else to the point where they are harmed because of your lie - and not be held responsible for your actions. It is not a threat to your freedom of speech to say "you can say just about anything you want... but of course you can't do obviously criminal things like falsely yelling 'fire' in a crowded theater and causing panic and injury to others" - that is not a threat to your freedom of speech and everyone knows it.

So why then is the 2nd Amendment different? The minor reasons I've already stated above, but the major reason is this: The gun manufacturers want to sell more guns because it makes them more money, and - SPOILER ALERT - they like money. Money is important and your life and the lives of anyone killed by guns is not only not important, it is virtually insignificant, especially compared to money. Further, those gun manufacturers pay the NRA well to make sure and stir everyone up about their freedoms being trampled, and the NRA in turn stirs everyone up, and pays the politicians handsomely to do the bidding of the gun manufacturers. When people die, the number of potential gun owners lost in each massacre is greatly and obscenely outnumbered by the increase in guns sold to the remaining portion of the population who are willing to be manipulated into buying more guns. The more shootings, the more profits to the gun manufacturers -- and let's not forget our lesson: money is important... they like money.  Money good.  YUM.   Death insignificant.

As for the people being (easily, in my opinion) manipulated by the gun manufacturers, why don't they care about other Amendments the way they do the 2nd?  Well,  the answer is in the question,  because they're being manipulated and don't care to ... stop being manipulated.  I believe they believe the 2nd Amendment is more important than, for example,  the 1st Amendment, because when we compare the two, specifically comparing the differences when the two are "changed" or "modernized" by laws or by the Supreme Court, I believe those people think their guns and the 2nd Amendment are vital to preventing the loss of their freedoms, while the 1st Amendment.. not so much. Nothing could be further from the truth (or reality). Guns and the 2nd Amendment aren't needed when you have so many willingly following and accepting the lies of people like Trump.... When you happily accede to the government takeover of your rights and your freedoms... why would you need a gun? You're already invited them in to rob you! They rob you of your most valuable asset - knowledge.  And you let them.

While the NRA scares you into thinking the negro boogyman is coming to your house and you better be arm yourself to the teeth - the Billionaire egomaniac quietly ships your neighbors back to Mexico, all with the boisterous approval of the white folks who are just here to "make America great again".

So when I see the knee-jerk reaction to anyone saying anything sensible about gun control or background checks or waiting periods, my reaction is "you didn't even think about what was said before shouting '2nd Amendment!! FREEDOM!! TYRANNY!!!' in my face, did you?" And the fact that you aren't shouting the same things about sensible changes or restrictions to other Amendments, like the 1st for example,  that proves to me that you are being manipulated. Worse,  you probably have no idea to the extent to which you are being manipulated. Which is exactly how those who seek to manipulate you like it.

Further,  the fact that you aren't screaming when we change the definition of Freedom of Speech,  and the fact that you aren't screaming when the Supreme Court tweaks the meaning of the words in an Amendment other than the 2nd proves to me,  absolutely fucking proves to me that when  you spew haughty warnings about our sacred Constitution - you are totally and completely full of hypocritical bullshit.  

It's very similar to people who take one part of the bible,  scream that it's the word of god and unquestionable and then completely fucking ignore other parts of the bible that they don't feel like following.   Sorry dude, but don't tell me how much you love and protect our Constitution when you not only fail to protect other parts of it with equal fervor,  you actually behave and support policies that directly contradict the Constitution.   Am I really supposed to take someone seriously when they scream that the Constitution is sacred and keep your hands off my guns and the 2nd Amendment... and then turn around and want to violate both the equal protection clause (14th Amendment) and freedom of religion (1st Amendment) by enforcing their religion on others?   Talk about taking away someone's freedoms.   The Federal Government isn't taking our freedoms,   you're thinking of radical far right fascists like Kim Davis,  Rush Limbaugh,  and anyone who thinks that this is a Christian nation and our laws should be based on the Bible.  FAIL. Obscene and blatant violation of the 1st Amendment.    

Sunday, October 4, 2015

The Kentucky Dirty




skank
noun

1.
a fast dance to reggae music
2.
(slanga promiscuous female


This post is not about reggae music.

Let's talk about Kim Davis.  Fuck her.  Ok,  next topic.