Monday, November 7, 2016

Tomorrow We Make History.... I mean Herstory

This is it! My final prediction of the 2016 (or should I say 2015-2016) election season.   I have to say.... my final prediction is a bit boring.  I thought about Ohio a lot,  and I thought about moving Arizona blue,  just to spice things up.  But ultimately I had to go with what I truly believe will happen.  Yes,  I think she can win Arizona, in fact,  if reports of early voting in that state are accurate, I think Hillary has a damn fine chance of winning the state tomorrow night.  Maybe even... 30% or 40% chance.  That is nothing to sneeze at.  That's basically "you have a good night,  you get the vote out,  you have a few Republican women who tell the pollster one thing but do another in the booth, and you have yourself an upset".   So if my map below is wrong,  I'd say start there and Ohio.  Here's another prediction I'll throw out,  since I think this map is rather boring and probably expected:  I think Florida will be closer than North Carolina.   I thought of this one about a week ago,  and granted,  recent news has made me reconsider because Florida apparently has had a nice strong Lation wave in early voting,  and NC has not seen that.   So I'd be happy to be wrong about this one, especially if Hillary still wins both anyways (though note she needs neither,  if the rest of my map is correct).   But based on polling I'm going to stick with that statement:  I think the final total in Florida will be closer than North Carolina.   I'm 52% sure of that prediction, lol. 

Ok I know,  show me the map.  Ok,  here you go!  Take this,  Nate Silver !!   





As you can see,  of the so called "battlegrounds",  I see Hillary winning most of them:  NV, CO, FL, NC,  NH and VA (though VA really isn't one anymore,  I don't think).   Trump manages to take Iowa and Ohio.  A pretty solid win for Team Hillary,  but not a blowout as I would like.  Speaking of which... I'm going to double up on maps tonight.  If the polling is off a bit,  and there really is a silent movement of women and Republicans who will go into the booth and check the box for Ms. Clinton, and Hillary has a great night overall,  winning the popular vote by say... 6-8%...  then we might see this tomorrow night: 






And I'll say this too... I wonder... I just wonder if we've all underestimated the DNC ground game,  and at the same time underestimated the impact of the lack of a ground game with Trump the big orange rump.  I just wonder.... if we're in for a real shocker tomorrow night.  Like Texas.  I honestly think it's possible.   Wouldn't that just grab you in the pussy?  

Ok one last thing.  Let's look back at my original prediction from 500 days ago.  The only differences are Hillary takes AZ and Iowa but loses NC.  Those are the only 3 states I ultimately changed my prediction on 500 days apart,  lol.   Makes you wonder why we needed a year and a half to argue and debate this thing.  

Tomorrow night,  my friends,  we celebrate!!!!   Now go vote!!

Yours Truly,

The Heartless Bastard

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