Thursday, January 21, 2016

300 (or so) Days Out

I'm about a week behind here,  but who's counting?   Here is my updated map,  I think my main change is Florida to the Democratic nominee.  Really, there is very little significant polling this far out.  I should have taken into consideration that there would be plenty of polling regarding the primaries but very little for the general election.  So really,   this isn't based on much. The truth is, at this point the more interesting question is: who will the nominees be?   One reason I moved Florida back to the Democratic camp is that the Republican party is just a godawful mess right now.   Trump and Cruz are the leading candidates and ... well let's be honest,  they're both big old steaming piles of dog shit.  Trump is a racist and a narcissist .  Cruz is a douche who is hated by just about everyone who knows him.   I don't see either doing well in the general election and further,  given that Trump almost certainly IS a narcissist,  I believe if Cruz is the nominee,  Trump will run as an independent.  If that happens,  Hillary or Bernie is likely to win all the toss ups, even states like North Carolina and maybe Arizona.

Hillary/Bernie is the other interesting question at this point.  I will say in the past week I've experienced the first belief that Bernie really could become the nominee. I still love both candidates and I want the one most likely to win in the general election to become the nominee,  and I still,  right now,  think that is Hillary.   The truth is Bernie is a liberal,  Hillary is a moderate but a very sane one. Bernie is the better candidate but unless the Democrats take both the House and Senate (unlikely,  given Gerrymandering)  will it really matter which of them is President? I don't think so. That's just my personal belief.   I'm sure Bernie will talk about liberal issues that liberals care about, more often than Hillary,  and when he does, his positions will be liberal, and Hillary's will be moderate (or,  as Fox will call them "insanely communist socialist freedom hating and satanic").

Enough blathering.. here's my updated map...




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