A pretty big change in the past 50 days. For awhile, Clinton was cruising on the upbeat and inclusive message of the Democratic National Convention vs. the fear, hatred, and insanity of the Republican Convention. As the weeks went by, the lead grew and then remained steady for a week or two. Now, for whatever reason, the racist asshole has gained in many states. But, there haven't been any debates yet, and Hillary is expected to open a can of whupass. Of course, that will work against her in the same way going to see a movie with huge anticipation means you expect to be blown away by that movie. Most people will go into the debates expecting Trump to be a moron and lie about his penis size. Anything above that and there are likely millions who will mindlessly clap and talk about how surprisingly good he was. Meanwhile, Hillary can literally reveal the cure for cancer, and there will still be some who find her performance to be disappointing. Even so, she will kick his ass, and it will help her in the polls. Here now, my prediction, just about 50 days out:
(in case you are curious, the 3 states I'm least convinced about are (in order): Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida. That is, I'm least convinced about Nevada of all the blue states in the map below. )
