Tomorrow We Make History.... I mean Herstory

This is it! My final prediction of the 2016 (or should I say 2015-2016) election season.   I have to say.... my final prediction is a bit boring.  I thought about Ohio a lot,  and I thought about moving Arizona blue,  just to spice things up.  But ultimately I had to go with what I truly believe will happen.  Yes,  I think she can win Arizona, in fact,  if reports of early voting in that state are accurate, I think Hillary has a damn fine chance of winning the state tomorrow night.  Maybe even... 30% or 40% chance.  That is nothing to sneeze at.  That's basically "you have a good night,  you get the vote out,  you have a few Republican women who tell the pollster one thing but do another in the booth, and you have yourself an upset".   So if my map below is wrong,  I'd say start there and Ohio.  Here's another prediction I'll throw out,  since I think this map is rather boring and probably expected:  I think Florida will be closer than North Carolina.   I thought of this one about a week ago,  and granted,  recent news has made me reconsider because Florida apparently has had a nice strong Lation wave in early voting,  and NC has not seen that.   So I'd be happy to be wrong about this one, especially if Hillary still wins both anyways (though note she needs neither,  if the rest of my map is correct).   But based on polling I'm going to stick with that statement:  I think the final total in Florida will be closer than North Carolina.   I'm 52% sure of that prediction, lol. 

Ok I know,  show me the map.  Ok,  here you go!  Take this,  Nate Silver !!   

As you can see,  of the so called "battlegrounds",  I see Hillary winning most of them:  NV, CO, FL, NC,  NH and VA (though VA really isn't one anymore,  I don't think).   Trump manages to take Iowa and Ohio.  A pretty solid win for Team Hillary,  but not a blowout as I would like.  Speaking of which... I'm going to double up on maps tonight.  If the polling is off a bit,  and there really is a silent movement of women and Republicans who will go into the booth and check the box for Ms. Clinton, and Hillary has a great night overall,  winning the popular vote by say... 6-8%...  then we might see this tomorrow night: 

And I'll say this too... I wonder... I just wonder if we've all underestimated the DNC ground game,  and at the same time underestimated the impact of the lack of a ground game with Trump the big orange rump.  I just wonder.... if we're in for a real shocker tomorrow night.  Like Texas.  I honestly think it's possible.   Wouldn't that just grab you in the pussy?  

Ok one last thing.  Let's look back at my original prediction from 500 days ago.  The only differences are Hillary takes AZ and Iowa but loses NC.  Those are the only 3 states I ultimately changed my prediction on 500 days apart,  lol.   Makes you wonder why we needed a year and a half to argue and debate this thing.  

Tomorrow night,  my friends,  we celebrate!!!!   Now go vote!!

Yours Truly,

The Heartless Bastard

50 Days out, the race is definitely closer

A pretty big change in the past 50 days. For awhile,  Clinton was cruising on the upbeat and inclusive message of the Democratic National Convention vs. the fear, hatred, and insanity of the Republican Convention. As the weeks went by, the lead grew and then remained steady for a week or two. Now, for whatever reason,  the racist asshole has gained in many states. But, there haven't been any debates yet, and Hillary is expected to open a can of whupass. Of course, that will work against her in the same way going to see a movie with huge anticipation means you expect to be blown away by that movie. Most people will go into the debates expecting Trump to be a moron and lie about his penis size. Anything above that and there are likely millions who will mindlessly clap and talk about how surprisingly good he was. Meanwhile,  Hillary can literally reveal the cure for cancer,  and there will still be some who find her performance to be disappointing. Even so,  she will kick his ass,  and it will help her in the polls. Here now, my prediction, just about 50 days out: 

(in case you are curious,  the 3 states I'm least convinced about are (in order): Nevada,  North Carolina,  and Florida.  That is,  I'm least convinced about Nevada of all the blue states in the map below. )

100 Days Out: Hillary in a Landslide (sound familiar?)

I'm going to make this short and sweet (and yes,  I'm a few days late) - the conventions are over,  and so is Trump's campaign.   Hillary will win in a landslide and the only question right now is how big of a landslide.   325?   350?  400?   Oh and for posterity,  this past week here are some of the lowlights:

• Obama is the founder of ISIS
• A crazy man climbed the outside of Trump Tower (well why shouldn't he?  a crazy man climbs the inside every day)
• Trump suggested the NRA folks could stop Hillary,  then he later lied and pretended he meant something else.   (but,  I thought he always says what he means and means what he says?)
• Trump is being sued for being a pedophile sexual pervert.  
• A Washington Post story outlined a 2007 deposition in which Trump was repeatedly forced to admit he'd publicly lied about... well, just about everything.  

Here now,  my prediction,  (approx.) 100 days out.  Oh wait,  one more thing.  I have,  for the first time,  not just predicted the state outcomes,  but the margin of victory as well.  All polls point to Virginia now being a BLUE state (woohoo!) and my dark shading reflects that.  Also,  I view Florida as slightly more likely to go for Hillary than Ohio,  which is slightly more likely than NC.  Ok , here now for real this time,  is my prediction:

200 Days Out : Hillary in a blowout

I'm going to make this short and sweet.  At this point,  Hillary will be the Democratic nominee,  and Trump almost certainly will be the GOP nominee.   Based on polling data over the past few months, it is clear that Trump would not only lose by at least 10% in the popular vote,  but would likely be a disaster for the GOP all the way down the ticket.  Let's hope that is true;  the karma boomerang for the hateful and disgusting politics of the Republican party is many years overdue.

With Trump as the nominee,  even if the GOP doesn't mount an alternative choice (which would probably make things even better for Hillary),  I see the first female President winning in November in a blowout,  over 400 electoral votes.  Honestly,  it might get even better,  but we'll have to see how the polls shake out once nominees are set,  and the VP candidates are chosen.

My latest prediction:

300 (or so) Days Out

I'm about a week behind here,  but who's counting?   Here is my updated map,  I think my main change is Florida to the Democratic nominee.  Really, there is very little significant polling this far out.  I should have taken into consideration that there would be plenty of polling regarding the primaries but very little for the general election.  So really,   this isn't based on much. The truth is, at this point the more interesting question is: who will the nominees be?   One reason I moved Florida back to the Democratic camp is that the Republican party is just a godawful mess right now.   Trump and Cruz are the leading candidates and ... well let's be honest,  they're both big old steaming piles of dog shit.  Trump is a racist and a narcissist .  Cruz is a douche who is hated by just about everyone who knows him.   I don't see either doing well in the general election and further,  given that Trump almost certainly IS a narcissist,  I believe if Cruz is the nominee,  Trump will run as an independent.  If that happens,  Hillary or Bernie is likely to win all the toss ups, even states like North Carolina and maybe Arizona.

Hillary/Bernie is the other interesting question at this point.  I will say in the past week I've experienced the first belief that Bernie really could become the nominee. I still love both candidates and I want the one most likely to win in the general election to become the nominee,  and I still,  right now,  think that is Hillary.   The truth is Bernie is a liberal,  Hillary is a moderate but a very sane one. Bernie is the better candidate but unless the Democrats take both the House and Senate (unlikely,  given Gerrymandering)  will it really matter which of them is President? I don't think so. That's just my personal belief.   I'm sure Bernie will talk about liberal issues that liberals care about, more often than Hillary,  and when he does, his positions will be liberal, and Hillary's will be moderate (or,  as Fox will call them "insanely communist socialist freedom hating and satanic").

Enough blathering.. here's my updated map...

400 Days Out....

Updating my 2016 Presidential Election prediction today,  you will note the only changes from 100 days ago are:  I took Arizona and Florida away from (Hillary) and I added Ohio to the Democrat total.  Arizona was just me screwing around,  I have no reason to believe that yet; at least not until I start seeing some polling there - which likely won't be until next year.   Florida polls look more favorable to the GOP lately,  and Ohio doesn't look bad for Democrats so I swapped those two.  Other than that not a lot of changes.

Meanwhile in the past 100 days we've seen the insane jackass Trump get a UUGE lead over all the other "LOSERS" and now that lead is pretty much gone,  as the quiet spoken but equally jackass Ben Carson (Token Black!)  now is basically tied with Trump.   You remember Carson right?  He's the one that thinks jails are homosexual factories,  you go in straight but you come out gay.   Oh,  and he's a doctor.   A doctor... who doesn't know how homosexuals are made.   I bet your average person with down's syndrome knows how homosexuals are made,  and if I had Michelle Bachmann's email address,  I'd ask her.

As for the actual candidates,  I'm not going to make any real predictions this time around - it's all just too crazy.  Still probably Hillary though Bernie definitely has some momentum,  and if he can convince Democrats he can win it all,  he could actually win the nomination.  On the GOP side,  I don't care,  they're almost all evil fucking assholes with no redeeming values and I hate them all.  Ok I might not hate John Kasich, and his chance of getting the nomination is about the same as Bush's chance of telling America his brother "kept America safe"  and not be called out for that pile of bullshit.   Maybe Bush thinks the English language works the same as everything else with Republicans and you can just have an opinion about what words mean,  and "kept America safe" actually to him means "ignored dire warnings of imminent terrorist attack,  went on vacation,  and then read a children's book while the biggest terror attack in the history of the country was taking place".

Ok enough about the GOP field of dicks.  Here is my prediction 400 days out:

** Election Prediction Center **

For the past several Presidential elections I have followed the polling and state by state expectations with a great amount of interest (and anticipation,  and nervousness,  and hope).   So,  when I realized earlier today we have ONLY 500 days to go until Election Day,  I decided I would add a page to the blog and occasionally post an Electoral Map with my guess for the outcome on November 8th, 2016.

Yes 500 days is a long way off;  we don't even know who the candidates will be yet (ok actually,  yes we do)  but that's part of the fun!   Yeah... fun.

Anyway,  ok so we're 500 days out but the election is already well underway with several Democrats and 4.2 million Republicans having already announced their plans to run.   I will update this post with a new guess every 100 days until we get 100 days out,  and then I'll do it every 25 days,  with the last guess on Monday the 7th,  the night before the election.

So,  here we go,   my guess on June 25, 2015,  500 days out....

I have Hillary... er,  the Democrat beating the Bush 325 to 213,  with Clinton capturing most of the same states Obama took in 2012 except she loses Ohio and gains Arizona.  I think those are my only changes from 2012.  Polling shows Hillary solid in Florida (even against Jeb! )  but vulnerable in Ohio.  Anyway,  here's the map: